Even as economic observers fretted over the prospects of a double-dip recession this week, the Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI released an upbeat report forecasting a rebound in consumer spending that will swing manufacturers back into action.
The MAPI Quarterly Economic Forecast, released today, predicts that inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 2.8% in 2010, followed by 3% growth in 2011. But it’s still not time to pop the champagne in a post-recession celebration, as MAPI said “growth will be muted and the rebound restrained.”
According to the MAPI report, investments in transportation equipment, IT, and residential housing will provide the demand surge needed to sustain manufacturing production growth.
“The overall economy grew in the third and fourth quarters of 2009, and high-frequency data point to moderate economic performance in the first quarter of 2010,” Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI Chief Economist Daniel J. Meckstroth said in a statement. “Similarly, manufacturing production hit its trough in June 2009 and has increased over 5% through January 2010. A moderate recovery is undoubtedly under way, but it is the pace of future near-term growth that is questionable.”