The adoption of new technologies often follows predictable patterns. Experimentation at the grass-roots level leads to ever-wider proliferation, which, ultimately, leads to the formulation of policies and procedures to govern and channel the experimentation. There are now early signs that this pattern is playing out with so-called Web 2.0 technologies.
A new survey by McKinsey & Co. reveals that business expectations surrounding Web 2.0 tools — such as wikis, blogs, social networks, and mashups — are quite high. In a survey of more than 1,900 organizations completed in June, 60% of those satisfied with Web 2.0 technologies said they consider 2.0 tools to be a driver of competitive advantage for their companies. At the same time, though, the survey reveals a looming problem common to the historical pattern now unfolding: More than a quarter of respondents indicate that their companies can't understand the financial return from 2.0 investments.
Prior technology eras showed similar conflicts. Whether it was distributed computing, PCs, or client/server systems, emotion always preceded rational planning. This is the way it should be. Someone or some group has to get excited by the idea of the technology without regard for such considerations as return on investment or market share.
Passion drives experimentation; experimentation reveals the possibilities. And each new chapter in technology appears to develop faster and persist for a shorter time than the preceding one.