The adoption of new technologies often follows predictable patterns. Experimentation at the grass-roots level leads to ever-wider proliferation, which, ultimately, leads to the formulation of policies and procedures to govern and channel the experimentation. There are now early signs that this pattern is playing out with so-called Web 2.0 technologies.

A new survey by McKinsey & Co. reveals that business expectations surrounding Web 2.0 tools — such as wikis, blogs, social networks, and mashups — are quite high. In a survey of more than 1,900 organizations completed in June, 60% of those satisfied with Web 2.0 technologies said they consider 2.0 tools to be a driver of competitive advantage for their companies. At the same time, though, the survey reveals a looming problem common to the historical pattern now unfolding: More than a quarter of respondents indicate that their companies can't understand the financial return from 2.0 investments.

Prior technology eras showed similar conflicts. Whether it was distributed computing, PCs, or client/server systems, emotion always preceded rational planning. This is the way it should be. Someone or some group has to get excited by the idea of the technology without regard for such considerations as return on investment or market share.

Passion drives experimentation; experimentation reveals the possibilities. And each new chapter in technology appears to develop faster and persist for a shorter time than the preceding one.

Web 2.0, according to McKinsey, today appears to be at the crossroads of experimentation and more serious business usage. McKinsey says there is a discernible shift from experimentation to use of the tools "as part of a broader business practice." Of those who are satisfied with their tools, some are changing their companies' management practices and organizational structures, including opening up their "business ecosystems" by encouraging customers to participate in product development.

"Successful companies already use Web 2.0 for business applications such as communicating with customers and suppliers; soon they may use it to drive innovation," the survey concludes.

But what the survey also suggests is that the adoption of 2.0 is moving quickly. Take Web services, for example. McKinsey says that 58% of respondents use Web services in their companies. Thirty-four percent are using blogs, up from 21% last year, and 29% are conducting podcasts, up from 23%.

At the same time, though, there's a rising tide of issues with 2.0. In addition to the 28% who say their companies can't understand the financial return, another 22% say their corporate cultures still don't encourage the use of Web 2.0 ideas. Nearly as many complain that their companies are too hierarchical and that they don't have the internal skills to implement 2.0 technologies.

Where all of this friction will lead us, of course, is down a road well traveled. And that road takes us to management's door. In companies now moving beyond experimentation with Web 2.0 technologies, management needs to shift the business mind-set from tactical exploitation of 2.0 to strategic positioning and deployment. Yes, it's that old refrain — you need a comprehensive strategy to do 2.0 right.

But be careful to keep experimentation alive through this process. After all, technology is a never-ending story.