Ten Behind, Ten Ahead

In my mind, the mid-1990s were among the most exciting times in the history of IT. The Internet was picking up steam, Microsoft Windows had successfully penetrated the plant floor, and client-server technology was the new mainstream architectural paradigm. Here are some other highlights: Reengineering the Corporation: The business process reengineering (BPR) wave triggered by Hammer and Champy's book Reengineering the Corporation was in high gear, driven by the Big 6 (then Big 5, then Big 4) firms. BPR lost favor because it usually resulted in headcount reductions, and was eventually replaced by an increasing trend toward "package-based reengineering" based on enterprise software applications. ERP rides the client- server wave: SAP's client- server version of its enterprise resource planning (ERP) software, SAP R3, became the dominant manufacturing enterprise software application, a position it still enjoys today. Noteworthy here is how a new architectural paradigm -- client-server -- helped fuel a major new software market for packaged applications. Y2K adds fuel to the fire: The Y2K phenomenon created a perfect storm for the IT industry, and IT spending levels have not recovered since. Dot-com to dot-bomb: When the hype faded into reality, the Internet and eBusiness really were very useful innovations. Web 2.0 is successfully playing out now, and IT governance has emerged as a critical alignment mechanism. Global business: Global competition, outsourcing, and the rise of China are our new reality. No matter how distasteful we may find outsourcing to be, it is a wide open door that will be increasingly difficult to close. We are truly participants in a worldwide economy. Deal with it! Web services and SOA: Web services emerged in the middle of this 10-year span. Web services signaled the next IT architectural paradigm, in effect pushing client-server out to pasture in favor of modular, standards-based approaches. Service-oriented architecture (SOA) envelopes Web services as the appropriate implementation model, and represents one of the most promising IT disciplines in years. The next 10 years: 2006-2016. I'm no futurist, but there are a few trends that augur how the next decade may unfold:

• A continued decline in mathematics, sciences, and engineering by U.S. students creates a knowledge emergency in America. Radical reform of high school and higher education systems begins, although results won't be felt for another 10 years.
• The decline in R&D spending by U.S. firms finally bottoms out. U.S. investment in R&D and innovation begin anew in parallel with the educational reforms above.
• The IT industry continues to be a crucial discipline and economic segment for the U.S. The SOA trend fuels a radical new model of IT strategy, sourcing, and delivery.
• My son is three years old and proficient with a PC, Windows, and the Internet. What does this tell us about the next generation?
• The advantages of labor outsourcing decline, but the rise of China, India, and other second- and third-world economies creates a wave of social unrest with higher expectations of social equality and social services.