Does the U.S. automobile industry have a future? Can General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler come back? Some might argue that the best days for these companies are past, that market, consumer, and product trends — and the industry's own mistakes in dealing with them — have inexorably swept these manufacturers aside and that the future of the automotive business lies with a different lineup of global automotive companies.

These arguments are not without merit. Detroit has made plenty of mistakes and bad deals, ranging from inattentiveness to quality, to demographic and product misjudgment, to expensive contracts with unions. The federal government's recent bailout, moreover, simply underscores the problems and rewards bad behavior.

But these arguments may miss an important point. At the root of it all, the automotive industry is in the throes of a huge global transformation that will redefine its relationships with buyers and how it partners, produces vehicles, and uses advanced technology to do business in an industry structured very differently than it has been. In other words, Detroit faces a huge new opportunity.

And there are organizations that are thinking very deeply and creatively about this opportunity. Two of them are IBM and Deloitte. In a paper titled "Automotive 2020," IBM says that the auto market is undergoing significant changes in manufacturing, purchasing, distribution, and how vehicles are serviced.

"In this dynamic new age ... a focus on the development of compelling personal mobility solutions, retail transformation, global execution, and extensive partnering will be the keys to success in 2020," IBM says.

One of the key "dimensions" that IBM says auto manufacturers must understand and work on is the integrated enterprise, a topic this magazine has written about extensively for years. "The pursuit of the sophisticated consumer, development of intelligent vehicles, and the transformation to dynamic operations will be wrapped in a new integrated enterprise that breaks from the past and is appealing to new talent the industry is seeking to attract," the paper states.

Deloitte takes the integrated enterprise idea even further, saying the industry will restructure in a number of ways, particularly around "global platforms."

"In this unstable dynamic environment, virtually all major automakers, both in the U.S. and abroad, are looking to collaborate with other automakers to jointly develop new technology like hybrid powertrains, share components such as transmissions, or fill excess production capacity by assembling vehicles for other OEMs," Deloitte says. "We will also see a dramatic change in the increased proliferation of global platforms. These platforms will truly be common platforms, in some cases possibly sharing over 70% of their components."

The ironic thing is that many within the auto industry understand what's going on as well as IBM and Deloitte do. The question is: Can they get ahead of these trends and transform their businesses to take advantage of them?

There's no easy answer to that question. Beset with day-to-day problems of basic survival, the risk is that Detroit will not be able to focus on the things that will ensure its future. Will the automakers find a way to both survive and transform?